The FBI’s 2023 national crime report revealed a significant drop in murder rates, coinciding with the rise of “constitutional carry” laws, now adopted in 29 states. This undermines the gun control lobby’s common argument that more guns lead to more crime.
Despite these facts, anti-gun advocates and the national media have largely ignored the correlation. HandgunLaw.us provides a detailed list of the states where permitless carry is now legal, including when each law took effect.
Significant drops in murders
According to the Brennan Center, “The FBI’s data aligns closely with predictions from independent experts, who anticipated significant drops in murders in both 2023 and 2024. The murder spike seen in 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, has largely subsided.”
The FBI’s National Instant Check System (NICS) data for background checks shows continued strong firearms sales in recent years. Though the FBI report was released a week ago, it hasn’t received much national attention.
Brennan’s analysis shows that overall crime rates dropped in 2023, with murder seeing the most substantial decrease of 11.6%. This drop brought the national murder rate down to levels not seen since 2017, though it remains slightly above pre-pandemic numbers.
While the updated 2023 concealed carry permit report from the Crime Prevention Research Center is pending, it’s worth noting that the number of active permits declined slightly in 2022, likely due to the rise of permitless carry laws. Estimating how many law-abiding citizens are carrying firearms under these new laws is difficult, but the continued decline in violent crime as these laws expand raises questions about the need for restrictive gun regulations.
STATS
The FBI report shows that violent crime decreased by an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022, with notable decreases in specific categories:
- Murder and non-negligent manslaughter decreased by 11.6%.
- Rape decreased by 9.4%.
- Aggravated assault saw a 2.8% decline.
- Robbery dropped by 0.3%.
Despite this, the FBI’s crime report platform remains difficult to navigate, particularly when trying to determine how many and what types of firearms are involved in homicides. Their figures include:
- Handguns: 22,072
- Firearms: 17,975
- Rifles: 1,796
- Other firearms: 1,176
- Shotguns: 645
- Knives/cutting instruments: 4,913
- Personal weapons (hands, feet, etc.): 2,489
- Blunt objects: 1,250
Efforts to contact the FBI for clarification on some of these figures have gone unanswered. Prior to 2019, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports provided a straightforward state-by-state breakdown of weapon types used in homicides, but since transitioning to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), this level of detail is no longer easily accessible.
BOTTOM LINE
While the media has largely ignored the link between crime decline and rising private gun ownership, some localized data offers insight. In Washington state, where murder rates are reportedly declining, there are still over 700,000 active concealed pistol licenses (CPLs). Despite the state’s liberal political leanings and reduced police presence, more residents seem to be taking responsibility for their own safety.
Ultimately, the latest FBI report adds to the growing evidence that increased private gun ownership has not resulted in a spike in violent crime. In fact, more people are killed with knives and blunt objects than with long guns, raising the question: Why is so much focus placed on banning “assault weapons,” which are responsible for a small fraction of murders?
